THE STATE OF AFFAIRS IN SOMALIA

May 14, 2009
Washera_2

So, I was invited to a panel discussion held at George Mason University on the current state of affairs in Somalia. The discussion was chaired by Professor Wallace Warfield of ICAR (Institute of Conflict Analysis and Resolution). The participants were faculty members and invited guests: Professor James Price (research), Mr. Hussein Yusuf (PhD student), Professor Terrence Lyons (faculty) and Mr. Mahdi Abdi from East African Policy Institute.

Professor James Price expounded on the conflict between religion and politics and the sacrilization to overcome and the secularization to be resisted by religious fanatics. It took a long time to resolve these issues in the United States; he said and will take even longer in the case of Somalia. The example he used of Jean Piaget's description of the preoperational stage children go through, lead him to conclude that religious fanatics do not have the mental actions that obey logical rules. Instead, their thinking is rigid, limited to one aspect of a situation at a time and tied to their own religious beliefs, without regard to the feelings of others.

Professor Terrence Lyons described the horrific violence going on in Mogadishu that had appeared somewhat calmer after the Ethiopian intervention was over. He went on to describe the rise of Al Shabab and the significant assistance that it is receiving from Eritrea and other countries (Saudi Arabia?). He did not mince words to accurately point out that, if Al Shabab were to control Mogadishu, Ethiopia will be there the following morning!

The PhD student, Mr. Hussein Yusuf, gave us a clearer view of the situation in Somalia. He talked about the main militant and radical wing in Somalia, Al Itihad al Islami, a non-tribal Muslim organization, prying on the young to build its membership. As early as 2001, both the Washington Post and the Daily Telegraph had reported that between 3,000 and 5,000 members of the al Qa'eda and al-Itihad partnership were operating in Somalia, with 50,000 t0 60,000 supporters and reservist. At the time, there were clear indications that bin Laden was setting up a new base of operations in Somalia and hence, the reason for US military strikes at the time of Ethiopia's intervention in Somalia. It is not clear what the numbers are at this time, but this group is very prominent in the Kismayo area and they control the ports and have accumulated massive arms. During their fight with the Transitional Government of Somalia for control of Puntaland, they were known to have caused fathers and sons to fight on opposite sides. They lost and were chased out of Puntaland. Their harsh rules go beyond banning cigarettes and Chat. One young man had his hand cut off for allegedly stealing a fishing net worth $90 dollars. Al Itihad seeks to establish an Islamic state in Somalia that adheres to a strict reading of the Koran, similar to the Wahabi interpretation used by the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Mr. Hussein Yusuf moved on to enlighten us about another group with an alien ideology, Al Shabab. It was not clear where the funding for this group comes from (? Saudi Arabia). But its ties to Eritrea are clear and it has remained on the terrorist list of the US government. They have been winning concessions from the Federal Government of Somalia, including the leaving of foreign forces and the adoption of Sharia law before any negotiations could begin. Although Islamic faith is one of the horizontal identities that cuts across clan lines in Somalia, it is not clear that this Wahabi version of Islam has wide spread support and acceptance. President Sheik Sherif Ahmed, in his attempt to resolve issues through dialogue, has signed a bill enacting Islamic Sharia law, even as Al Shabab insurgents refused his call for dialogue and continued an assault on government forces in Mogadishu. President Sharif's government enjoys international backing, but has little control on the ground, beyond a few streets and key buildings in the capital.

When the time came to hear Mr. Mahdi Abdi, the gloves were off! He is an American citizen of Somali origin who has been out of Somalia for over 30 years. He talked about the US collaboration in the 'invasion' of Somalia by Ethiopian forces and demanded the removal of all foreign forces before any meaningful peace could come to Somalia. He was sentimental about the Somalia he left decades ago and lamented about 'mandel', the female camel in Somalia which is a symbol of freedom and unity like the Eagle in the US. He lost my support when he criticized the legitimate government of Sheik Sherif and added that the 'dictator' in Ethiopia had to be removed before peace comes to Somalia. He told us that the last time he was in Somalia, Somali forces were 40km outside Addis Ababa!. The 'invasion' of Ethiopia, he alleged, has caused more than 100 years worth of hatred toward Ethiopia. When my turn came for questioning, I had to correct all the allegations made by the gentleman from the East African Policy Institute and that opened up a very hot debate in the room.

At the end, it was clear that there was a lack of leadership in Somalia, but no consensus on the best approach to resolve the conflict other than to support the efforts of Sheik Sherif, the legitimate leader of the Federal Government of Somalia. It was also clear that Ethiopia was not going to watch a terrorist group take control of Mogadishu.